The year 2025 commenced with uncertainty surrounding both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Global geopolitical tensions continue to drive market volatility, shaping current sentiment. Additionally, potential new tariffs and sanctions that may be implemented by the newly elected President of the United States could further disrupt supply chains and exacerbate market uncertainty. Amid this unpredictable landscape, tonnage supply remains the only relatively stable factor. However, a thorough analysis of the data can offer valuable insights into the dynamics of the freight market. With this in mind, we will examine the projected new vessel deliveries for 2025.
Beginning with the bulk carrier sector, a total of 541 bulk carriers are expected to enter service in 2025, amounting to a combined capacity of 38.33 million dwt. This represents an increase of 51 vessels compared to those delivered in 2024, along with a rise of 4.49 million dwt. Moreover, this will mark the highest number of vessel deliveries in volume terms since 2016 and the highest in dwt terms since 2021. Regarding specific vessel sizes, the projections for 2025 include 40 Capesize vessels, 15 Post Panamax vessels, 121 Kamsarmax/Panamax vessels, and 196 Ultramax/Supramax vessels—the highest number recorded since 2016. Additionally, 146 Handysize vessels above 20k dwt are expected to enter service in 2025.
Turning to the tanker sector, a total of 43 crude tankers, amounting to 7.15 million dwt, are expected to be delivered in 2025. This represents a substantial increase compared to just 17 crude tankers delivered in 2024, totaling 2.52 million dwt, which was also the lowest number ever recorded. Despite this year-on-year increase, 2025 is projected to witness the second-lowest number of deliveries in dwt terms and the lowest in terms of vessel count since 2015.
Specifically, deliveries in 2025 are expected to include 5 VLCCs, 30 Suezmax, and 8 Aframax tankers. Among these, only Suezmax deliveries surpass its five-year average of 22 vessels.
In the product tanker segment, market dynamics present a distinct contrast. A total of 179 product tankers exceeding 10,000 dwt are anticipated to enter service in 2025, with a cumulative capacity of 12.09 million dwt. This represents a significant increase compared to the 49 vessels delivered in 2024, which totaled 3.37 million dwt. While 2024 recorded the lowest number of product tanker deliveries in dwt terms since 2001, 2025 is set to mark the highest number of deliveries since 2009.
Data Source: Intermodal