Key takeaways from this report:
Dirty – East of Suez: Although unlikely, US tariffs on Canadian crude would benefit Aframaxes loading at TMX
Clean – East of Suez: Asia’s robust jet/kero imports support tonne-mile demand in November
Dirty – West of Suez: Shift in Europe-destined voyages to favour closer origins likely to dampen Suezmax tonne-miles demand
LNG – West of Suez: Falling ballast speeds underscore vessel oversupply and limited demand
By Mary Melton
Dirty – East of Suez: Although unlikely, US tariffs on Canadian crude would benefit Aframaxes loading at TMX
Trump’s proposed 25% import tariffs on Canadian crude are unlikely to happen (more likely going to be used as a bargaining tool), but it is worth considering the impact to the freight market if they do occur
The cost of Canadian crude with a 25% premium would make it very expensive to go to US markets, which will likely lead to a discount on Canadian barrels
➔ However, even with a discount, Canadian crude exports to the US market would likely still be much reduced
As a result, Canada will want to clear its crude by finding other outlets, likely sending more to Asia from TMX at a discount
Direct Aframax voyages to China are most likely, as this has recently been the preferred method for getting TMX barrels to Asia
➔ This is a positive for Aframax tonne-mile demand, especially if we assume most of the short-haul voyages from TMX-to-PADD 5 will be exclusively replaced by TMX-to-Asia voyages
➔ If the discount is low enough, we could also see South Korea buy some TMX crude, which could utilise VLCCs loaded at the Pacific Lightering Zone
Clean – East of Suez: Asia’s robust jet/kero imports support tonne-mile demand in November
Asia jet/kero imports reached over 350kbd in Nov, surpassing 2019 average levels of 340kbd
➔ Robust jet fuel demand has supported the Asia jet regrade (Argus), which has flipped to positive since mid-Oct
Colder weather in Northeast Asia has driven heating demand
➔ Seasonal heating demand has supported higher kerosene imports into Japan, which have reached a 9-month high
➔ South Korea increased its jet/kero imports as local refiners prioritise kerosene production for domestic use
➔ This has supported APAC MR tonne-mile demand
On the export side, the Wider Arabian Sea ramped up jet/kero exports to Asia amid a closed East-West arbitrage
➔ Increased longer-haul voyages from the Wider Arabian Sea have supported LR1 tonne-mile demand to East Asia
Dirty – West of Suez: Shift in Europe-destined voyages to favour closer origins likely to dampen Suezmax tonne-miles demand
Suezmaxes have increasingly shifted to regional trades as VLCCs dominate long-haul routes
Going off a year-on-year seasonal outlook, Suezmax tonne-miles demand for Europe-bound voyages have exceeded the eight-year seasonal range for much of 2024
➔ Bolstered by stronger demand from West Africa, Gulf of Mexico, and Middle East Gulf, where tonne-miles have outperformed compared to last year
However, the number of crude-carrying Suezmax voyages originating from Wider Northwest Europe and Wider Mediterranean have reached a three-month high in November
➔ Drop off in Suezmax longer-haul voyages originating from South Atlantic, North America East Coast, and the Wider Arabian Sea, have reached four-month lows
➔ This will likely place downward pressure on Atlantic Basin Suezmax tonne-miles demand towards Europe
LNG – West of Suez: Falling ballast speeds underscore vessel oversupply and limited demand
Strong fleet growth and limited liquefaction capacity additions have contributed to an oversupply of LNG carriers this year, putting downward pressure on freight rates
The excess vessel availability is highlighted by a decline in average speeds of the fleet at the start of the winter season
➔ This dynamic is a reversal of recent historical trends where LNG freight demand typically peaks during this period as key demand markets in Europe and Asia ramp up stockpiling
This year, weekly average ballast speeds of the LNG fleet fell by 1% from mid-September to November, in contrast to a 5% increase during the same period in the last two years
Data Source: Vortexa