In its November report, OPEC announced its fourth consecutive downward revision to global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with China’s slowing economy cited as the main factor.
OPEC reduced its 2024 demand growth estimate by 110k b/d to 1.82m b/d and by 100k b/d to 1.54m b/d for 2025. It cut its demand growth forecast for China to 450k b/d in 2024 from 580k b/d in last month's monthly report.
Despite these cuts, OPEC’s forecasts remain higher than those from the IEA and the EIA, at 860k b/d and 910k b/d, respectively, for 2024 and 1m b/d and 1.3m b/d for 2025.
Non-OPEC+ supply growth forecasts were left unchanged at 1.23m b/d and 1.11m b/d for 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Tanker rates are close to year-lows despite the start of the typically seasonally stronger fourth quarter. Continued weakness in Chinese oil demand and OPEC production cuts remaining in place mean tanker rates, especially for VLCCs which account for most of China's imports, will struggle to rise to their usual seasonal highs this winter.
On Friday, China announced additional economic stimulus measures, but they are unlikely to boost weak Chinese oil demand this year. Investors were unimpressed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell over 2% following the announcement. A weaker Chinese economy, and less domestic fuel demand as a result, will likely keep VLCC rates subdued as price-sensitive Chinese refiners import less and buy cheaper oil from sanctioned suppliers which tends to go either short-haul on Aframax tankers in the case of Russian oil or on 'dark fleet' ships in the case of Iranian and Venezuelan oil.
Last month, eight OPEC+ members delayed, for the second time, the planned unwinding of their 2.2m b/d production cuts to January, citing sluggish Chinese demand. With some members of the group increasingly keen on unwinding cuts for financial and political reasons despite sliding oil prices, OPEC has turned its attention to compliance and to serial overproducers like Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan pumped 1.29m b/d in October, according to OPEC. That was down by 292k b/d from September but was still almost 90k b/d above its output target, which had been reduced to compensate for earlier over-production. The country increased CPC Blend crude exports via the CPC terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast from 1.05m b/d in September to 1.12m b/d in October. A cut back in production to quota levels would likely see a reduction in exports via the terminal, a major source of Aframax and Suezmax demand in the Mediterranean region. Around 19 Suezmaxes and 30 Aframaxes loaded CPC Blend in October, a cut of 90k b/d could result in the equivalent of around four fewer Aframaxes loading a month. Kazakhstan will likely come under increased pressure to bring production in line with quotas when OPEC+ oil ministers meet on 1 December to set production plans for next year.