Tanker - Weekly Market Monitor
Snapshot of Crude and Product Freight Rates, Supply-Demand
Week 17, 25 April, 2025
Despite persistent international sanctions, Iran managed to sustain significant crude oil exports between January 2023 and March 2025, totaling approximately 268.5 million barrels. This continued export activity—entirely sourced from Iranian production—demonstrates Tehran’s resilience and strategic adaptability in circumventing global pressure.
A striking feature of Iran’s export strategy is its overwhelming reliance on Kharg Island, which accounted for 96.6% of all shipments and 95.3% of terminal usage during this period. These figures highlight the island’s pivotal role in Iran’s oil logistics infrastructure and its strategic value in sustaining flows amid sanctions.
To maximize efficiency and reduce operational risk, Iran leaned heavily on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which carried over 91% of total export volume. This approach not only enabled the country to move large volumes per voyage but also likely minimized exposure to maritime interdiction. Additionally, 99.8% of the cargo consisted of crude oil, underscoring Iran’s reliance on its primary hydrocarbon asset.
On the demand side, Iran’s exports were heavily concentrated in Asia, where geopolitical alignment and logistical flexibility have facilitated continued trade. Singapore led all destinations with 60% of import volumes, followed by China (25%) and Malaysia (6%). Ports such as Dongjiakou and Lanshan in China—known hubs for blending and storage—played a crucial role in the discreet rebranding of Iranian crude before it re-entered global markets under different identities.
These trade patterns are deeply reflective of shifting geopolitical realities. Iran’s ability to sustain oil exports in defiance of sanctions underscores the limits of Western enforcement, particularly in the maritime domain. Its strategic eastward pivot—especially toward China—mirrors broader geoeconomic realignments tied to Beijing’s energy security needs and its Belt and Road Initiative. This alignment has granted Iran sustained access to major energy markets despite sustained efforts to economically isolate it.
However, recent data from March 2025 signals potential cracks in this model. Monthly exports fell to 9.7 million barrels, down 0.82% from February and a sharp 31% year-over-year drop compared to March 2024. This downturn coincides with the U.S. announcement of renewed, tighter sanctions, specifically targeting Chinese-bound flows. These new measures reportedly focus on maritime insurers, ship registries, and logistics networks involved in Iranian oil transshipments—key enablers of Iran’s evasive strategies.
In essence, while Iran has proven remarkably resourceful in maintaining oil exports under pressure—leveraging maritime tactics and regional partnerships—the renewed sanctions appear to be exerting real pressure. If enforcement efforts intensify and China’s tolerance wanes under diplomatic pressure, March's decline could mark the beginning of a more constrained phase for Iranian crude.
Crude oil freight market sentiment strengthened toward the end of April, highlighted by a notable rebound in the Aframax Mediterranean market
VLCC freight rates on the MEG–China route climbed to WS68, marking a 6% increase month-on-month. Suezmax rates from West Africa to continental Europe remained strong, holding above WS100 and marking a 20% month-on-month increase. Meanwhile, rates on the Baltic–Mediterranean route held steady at WS130, reflecting the same firm sentiment seen a week ago and standing 17% higher than a year ago.
Aframax freight rates in the Mediterranean stood at WS180, representing an 8% decline week-on-week, yet remaining 30% higher than the levels recorded last month.
LR2 AG freight rates continued a soft downward trend from the end of March, with rates at WS127, reflecting a 15% monthly decrease.
Panamax Carib-to-USG settled at approximately 200 WS, reflecting a 30% monthly increase.
MR1 freight rates for Baltic-to-Continent shipments hovered around WS178, representing a 15% monthly decrease.
MR2 freight rates for shipments from the Continent to the US Atlantic Coast (USAC) reached WS140. Meanwhile, MR2 rates on the US Gulf–to–Continent route hover around WS100, marking a 20% weekly decrease.
The number of available crude tankers remains below the yearly average; however, there is a recent upward pressure.
VLCC Ras Tanura: The current number of ships is around 66, almost 7 lower than the annual average.
Suezmax Wafr: The current number of ships is around 46, 13 lower than the annual average.
Aframax Med: The last days of April indicated an upward trend, as the number of ships is nearing the annual benchmark of 10.
Aframax Baltic: The ship count stood at approximately 24, nearly 8 vessels below the annual average.
Clean LR2 AG Jubail: The downward trend persists, with vessel count remaining below the annual average of 11 over the last ten weeks.
Clean MR: Algeria’s Skikda port has experienced increased activity, with MR1 vessel calls reaching 38, seven more than the annual average. Meanwhile, MR2 calls at Amsterdam continue to trend upward, currently exceeding the annual average of 32, sustaining the momentum seen since the end of Week 15.
Dirty tonne days: In the final week of April, the VLCC segment saw a continued decline in tonne-day growth, deepening its fall below the yearly average since peaking in week 13. Meanwhile, the Suezmax market's tonne-day growth has nearly aligned with the annual average. In contrast, the Aframax segment experienced a sharp upswing, reaching one of its strongest growth rates since the start of the year, driven by a steady rise that began at the end of week 11.
Panamax tonne days: The growth rate remains below this year’s weekly average, though tentative signs of an upward trend have emerged over the past two weeks.
MR tonne-days: The MR segment has seen a sustained decline in growth rate since the end of week 5, with the onset of the second quarter further reinforcing this downward momentum.
Data Source: Signal Ocean Platform