Dry Weekly Market Monitor - Week 14, 2025
Snapshot of Spot Freight Rates, Supply-Demand Trends, Port Congestions
April 02, 2025
Supramax Market Analysis: S8 Route Surges Amidst Tightening Tonnage Supply
Over the past several weeks, the Supramax freight market has witnessed a remarkable recovery, particularly on the Baltic Exchange’s S8 route — which covers South China via Indonesia to East Coast India, a key corridor for coal shipments.
Recovery Timing:
The recovery in the Supramax market for the S8 route appears to have started in early February 2025.
On the left chart, the S8 rate (green line) bottomed out around late January 2025, at approximately $5,797/day, and then began a sharp upward movement into February and March.
The S11TC (Supramax Timecharter Average) followed closely, starting to rise in mid to late February 2025 to above $12,000/day by the end of March, indicating a slightly lagged broader market reaction.
Tonnage Supply and Rate Correlation
The most striking element behind this rally is the significant contraction in net vessel supply in the region. As depicted in the right-hand graph, the number of available Supramax vessels fell steeply during the same period that S8 rates began to climb. When net supply dipped below the 70-vessel mark in early March — freight rates started to respond with an upward trend, highlighting the highly elastic nature of pricing in the face of tightening tonnage.
Broader Market Impacts – S11TC Tracking the Move
The Baltic Supramax Timecharter Average (S11TC) has also shown a concurrent upward trend, climbing alongside the S8 route. Currently hovering around $12,500/day, the S11TC is approaching the levels recorded in November 2024.
Market Outlook
Looking forward, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. If vessel supply remains constrained in Southeast Asia — whether due to port delays, weather disruptions, or prolonged ballast voyages — Supramax rates, especially on the S8, may find further upward support. Additionally, if Indian coal imports remain firm and Chinese coastal demand picks up, we could see further tightening in the near term.
However, market participants should remain alert to the possibility of rapid correction. A rebound in vessel availability, possibly from vessels repositioning from the Pacific or Indian Ocean, could cap further upside. Similarly, any softening in demand, whether from seasonal factors or policy shifts in India or China, could temper the momentum.
In summary, the recent surge in the S8 rate underscores the sensitivity of the Supramax market to shifts in regional supply-demand dynamics. With both the S8 and S11TC indices pointing higher, the current rally appears well-grounded — but sustained strength will ultimately depend on whether supply remains tight or begins to normalise.
The freight market sentiment for large vessels was boosted at the end of March due to a combination of fewer ballasters and increased tonne-day demand growth.
Capesize vessel freight rates from Brazil to North China remained close to $23 per tonne, showing a 16% increase compared to last month, despite a slight decline.
Panamax from the Continent remained above $30 per tonne, showing an 11% increase compared to last month.
Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route experienced a 9% increase month-over-month, nearing $10 per tonne.
Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have been over $30 per tonne since the end of February, and saw a 5% increase over the last month.
The latest indicators from the ballaster perspective continue to reflect a mixed outlook, with notable downward revisions in the Capesize and Panamax segments in Southeast Africa, as well as the Supramax market in Southeast Asia. In contrast, the Handysize sector in the NOPAC region still shows increasing vessel activity."
Capesize, SE Africa: The number of vessels, at approximately 75, was 30 below the yearly average. This appears to be the lowest number seen in the past year.
Panamax SE Africa: The vessel count continued to decline with levels dropping below 110 — almost 25 fewer than the annual average.
Supramax SE Asia: Current trends strongly suggest a downward trajectory in the upcoming days, potentially nearing the annual average of 100.
Handysize NOPAC: The Handy NOPAC segment's levels have increased to 95, continuing an upward trend that began at the end of week 11.
The end of March marked a significant recovery in the Panamax and Capesize vessel segments, while smaller vessel categories appear to be experiencing stagnant momentum.
Capesize: The growth trajectory has gained solid momentum since bottoming out at the end of week 8, with recent levels indicating the strongest rate of increase observed so far this year.
Panamax: Tonne-day growth continued its upward trajectory from previous weeks, accelerating to new highs and signaling a strong start to the second quarter.
Supramax: The growth rate maintained a steady momentum, with no significant spikes observed. Week 8 appeared to align with current levels.
Handysize: Its growth rate remained consistent with the previous two weeks, showing a gradual increase starting at the end of week 2.
Congestion at Chinese dry bulk ports showed a downward trend at the end of March, with significant declines seen across all vessel size segments.
Capesize: Capesize vessel congestion declined to 97, down by 10 compared to the previous week's end.
Panamax: Panamax vessel congestion dropped below 160, around 20 lower than the end of the previous week.
Supramax: Congestion levels hovered below the 300 mark, 25 lower than at the end of week 12.
Handysize: Congestion levels have fallen below 190, marking a decrease of 10 compared to the previous week.
Data Source: Signal Ocean Platform