Dry Weekly Market Monitor - Week 09, 2025
Snapshot of Spot Freight Rates, Supply-Demand Trends, Port Congestions
February 26, 2025
Recent observations indicate that imported iron ore stocks at China’s major ports have seen a slight decrease, dropping by 529,900 tonnes, or 0.3% week-on-week, to a total of 153.4 million tonnes as of February 20. This reduction occurs even as both the incoming and discharged volumes of iron ore have risen in recent weeks, suggesting that while port operations are strong, there is a clear drawdown in overall stockpiles.
This modest dip in port inventories appears to indicate that China's immediate demand for iron ore imports is being met by its existing substantial stockpiles. The increase in throughput, combined with the fall in stocks, implies that current inventories are satisfying import needs without necessitating additional shipments. This situation points to a market where the dependency on stored inventory is rising, potentially lessening the demand for new shipment imports.Moreover, these dynamics hold significant implications for the Capesize freight market. With China effectively utilizing its reserves, the demand for new iron ore shipments decreases, creating a scenario where surplus shipping capacity may become apparent. This is reflected in an increase in ballaster activity, as vessels are increasingly repositioning due to lower immediate demand. Consequently, the equilibrium between supply and demand in the freight market shifts, likely exerting further downward pressure on freight rates.
In summary, the interaction between steady throughput, the strategic use of port stockpiles, and rising ballaster numbers hint at a transitional phase in the market. If these trends persist, the Capesize segment may witness ongoing declines in freight prices, prompting shipping companies to reevaluate their capacity deployment and pricing strategies in a market where supply increasingly surpasses fresh demand. By the end of the month, ballasters in the South Atlantic recorded a modest 5% decrease from their previous highs, though levels remain significantly above the record lows observed at the start of the year. It remains uncertain whether the March trend will continue to decline, potentially boosting C3 freight rates.
The trend for Capesize rates from Brazil to North China strengthened before the end of the month, while signs of recovery in other vessel size categories have now been confirmed, gaining further momentum from the third week's end.
Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China reached $18 per tonne, bolstering market sentiment after dipping to $17 in previous weeks.
Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East stood at $30 per ton, representing a slight upward trend from the previous week.
Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route have been revised to over $8 per tonne by the end of the third week, reaching nearly $9 per tonne, with an upward trend expected in March.
Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have climbed to nearly $30 per tonne, marking a 15% increase month-over-month.
The latest indicators from the ballasters' perspective suggest a downward correction, though levels remain higher than those seen in early January.
Capesize SE Africa: The number of vessels hovered around 130, nearly 20 fewer than the previous week but still 30 above levels seen at the start of the year.
Panamax SE Africa: The vessel count saw a downward correction after nearly a month of steady momentum, dropping to 150—almost 30 fewer than the previous week.
Supramax SE Asia: The final week of February saw levels fall slightly below the annual average of 98, with early March showing signs of a continued downward trend.
Handysize NOPAC: The Handy NOPAC segment confirmed the previous week's downward revision, with levels falling below the annual trend of 27.
The decline in tonne-days persisted in the Capesize segment, but signs of recovery are emerging, suggesting that levels may have bottomed out since mid-February.
Capesize: The growth rate appears to have bottomed out, with recent figures remaining significantly lower than early January levels.
Panamax: Tonne-day growth has remained consistent with previous weeks, while market estimates suggest a steady momentum by month-end.
Supramax: The growth rate remains the strongest among vessel size categories, sustaining a steady upward trajectory throughout February.
Handysize: Its growth rate remained above that of the Panamax segment, reaching its highest level since the end of Week 5.
Congestion at Chinese dry bulk ports continued to ease, with a trend pointing toward fewer congested ships in early March.
Capesize: Capesize vessel congestion fell below 80, marking a decrease of 20 compared to the end of the previous week.
Panamax: Panamax vessel congestion dropped below 140, marking a decline of approximately 30 compared to levels recorded four weeks ago.
Supramax: Congestion levels decreased by approximately 250 vessels, nearly 10 fewer than the figures recorded the previous week.
Handysize: Congestion levels rose to more than 180, registering an increase of over 10 compared to the previous week.
Data Source: Signal Ocean Platform