Reflecting on last year’s trends, the Capesize segment once again stood out for its volatility. In the span of just one month, Capesize rates had surged from $21,645 to $31,089 per day before plummeting back to $18,461 daily. This volatility was characteristic of a market susceptible to rapid swings. The Panamax sector, however, exhibited more stability, ending at $14,448 per day, while Supramax and Handysize rates softened from multi-month highs, closing at $13,024 and $12,080 daily, respectively.
As we close out October a year later, downward pressure persists, especially for larger vessels. Yet, the final trading week brought a shift: Capesize and Panamax rates steadied, while Supramax and Handysize segments experienced declines. The Baltic Capesize TC index stabilized at $15,329 daily, while Panamax retained a five-digit close at $10,789 daily. Supramax recorded the steepest drop, down $800 over five days to close at $12,802 daily. Handysize, after nine consecutive trading days above $13,000, ended at $12,926 daily. On an annual basis, gearless segments are trading at noticeably lower rates, while geared vessels remain aligned with October 2023 levels, pointing to resilience within certain size classes amid broader market challenges.
On the commodity front, iron ore sector has seen substantial import activity, reflecting China’s continued demand despite economic challenges. In 2023, China’s iron ore imports rose 6.5 percent to 975.84 million tonnes in the first ten months, and for the same period in 2024, imports reached 918.9 million tonnes—up 4.9 percent from last year. September alone recorded 104.1 million tonnes, with October estimates from Kpler and LSEG suggesting imports could total between 117.3 and 120.5 million tonnes. This would place the cumulative ten-month figure significantly above last year’s levels.Similarly, coal imports reached 430 million tonnes during this period, registering an impressive surge of 62.8 percent in comparison to the previous year. Demand for seaborne thermal coal in Asia has been quite.
China’s steel production, however, has moved in the opposite direction, falling for a fourth consecutive month in September to 77.07 million tonnes, down 1.1 percent from August and 6.1 percent year-on-year. The total output for the first nine months of 2024 stands at 768.48 million tonnes, marking a 3.6 percent drop compared to the same period in 2023. This imbalance between imports and steel production has contributed to an increase in stockpiles, with iron ore inventories at 45 key.
Chinese ports rising from a seven-year low of 104.89 million tonnes last October to 154.2 million tonnes as of October 31. This growing stockpile could indicate softened domestic steel demand but also signals China’s preparedness for potential future demand rebounds.
China has also increased its agricultural imports amid concerns over potential trade disruptions, notably with soybeans and other grains. For the first nine months of 2024, soybean imports rose 8 percent to 81.85 million tonnes, driven by substantial September volumes. With Brazil now entering its off-peak soybean export season, US soybean arrivals typically take over from October to March. However, this year, the flow from the US appears slower than last year’s already modest levels. Analysts expect US soybean arrivals to be below last November’s figures, owing to continued Brazilian imports and high domestic inventories that may lessen China’s reliance on US sources. Other grains have similarly surged, with barley imports up 63 percent and sorghum shipments climbing 86 percent over the first three quarters. These elevated import levels underscore China’s approach to securing its agricultural supply chain, maintaining a robust inventory buffer against possible trade risks.
The dry bulk market's performance in October illustrates a complex mix of resilience and caution. While smaller segments like Supramax and Handysize showed relative stability, the Capesize and Panamax segments experienced notable declines, underscoring a more cautious market outlook. Elevated iron ore imports alongside rising stockpiles in China reflect an approach of preparedness amid slowing steel production, which could signal shifting demand dynamics ahead. Additionally, strong agricultural imports highlight China’s strategic stance on supply security amidst trade uncertainties. As the year nears its close, market trends will likely respond to policy shifts and economic signals once again, although the accumulation of high inventories suggests that any future increase in imports may be restrained rather than accelerated.
Data source: Doric