Steel Output Ex-China Back in Contraction as China's Output Finally Growing Again

By Jeffrey Landsberg

As we discussed in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly Dry Bulk Report, global steel production totaled approximately 143.6 million tons in September.  This is down month-on-month by 1.2 million tons (-1%) and is 5.7 million tons (-4%) less than was reported last year for September 2023’s production.  Steel production outside of China totaled approximately 66.5 million tons last month.  This is down month-on-month by 400,000 tons (-1%) and is 700,000 tons (-1%) less than was reported last year for September’s production.

Steel production outside of China has finally contracted on a year-on-year basis (ironically, just before China’s own steel production has returned to finding growth).  Previously, steel production outside of China had grown on a year-on-year basis for twelve straight months.

In China, the most recent data has shown that daily crude steel output at large and medium-sized mills averaged 2.07 million tons during October 11 - October 20.  This is up by 1% from the previous ten days and is up year-on-year by 1%.  Previously, year-on-year growth in China’s steel production was last seen during late May through early June.