The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) earlier this month released its latest grain export forecast for the 2024/25 season and is now predicting that global coarse grain, wheat, soybean, and soymeal exports will total 702.3 million tons. This is 1.8 million tons less than was predicted a month ago and would mark a year-on-year decline of 10.1 million tons (-1%) from the 712.4 million tons that is now expected for 2023/24. Global grain trade being expected to contract on a year-on-year basis remains a headwind, but at least a smaller contraction is now expected. A month ago, the USDA was predicting a year-on-year contraction of 12.3 million tons.
The USDA is now forecasting that global coarse grain exports in 2024/25 will total 230.2 million tons, which is 1 million tons less than was predicted a month ago and would mark a year-on-year decline of 9.3 million tons (-4%). Coarse grain will continue to serve as the dry bulk market’s largest grain export type by volume. A large decline is expected from Ukraine. Increases are expected from Argentina, Brazil, and the United States.
Global wheat exports in 2024/25 are now expected to total 215.8 million tons, which is 700,000 tons less than was predicted a month ago and would mark a year-on-year decline of 5.5 million tons (-2%). Year-on-year declines in wheat exports are expected from Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine, with the declines from the European Union and Russia to be particularly large. Year-on-year increases are expected from Australia, the United States, and Canada.
Global soybean exports in 2024/25 are now expected to total 181.5 million tons. This is 100,000 tons more than was predicted a month ago and would mark a year-on-year increase of 4.6 million tons (3%). Year-on-year increases in soybean exports are expected from the United States and Brazil. The increase from the United States is expected to be particularly large. A small year-on-year decline is expected from Argentina.
Soymeal exports in 2024/25 are now expected to total 74.8 million tons, which is the same amount that was predicted a month ago and would mark a year-on-year increase of 100,000 tons. An increase in exports is expected from the United States and Argentina. A decline is still expected from Brazil.
