Divergence in China's Coal Output and Coal-Derived Electricity Generation

By Jeffrey Landsberg


As we discussed in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly Executive Report, China's coal production last month totaled a record 438.9 million tons.  This is up month-on-month by 10.9 million tons (3%), is up year-on-year by 24.6 million tons (6%), and has marked a seventh straight month where China's coal production has grown on a year-on-year basis.  Significant is that while China's National Energy Administration last month announced that it expects coal production will grow this year by only 0.8%, for now there is no sign of such a slowdown occuring.

Coal-derived electricity generation, which makes up the bulk of China's electricity generation, totaled 597.5 billion kilowatt hours.  This is up month-on-month by 80 billion kilowatt hours (16%) but is down year-on-year by 13.4 billion kilowatt hours (-2%).  Overall, it has not helped Chinese coal import demand prospects that coal-derived electricity generation growth has fared worse than domestic coal production growth for three straight months.