The Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in 2024, achieving the government’s annual GDP growth target of 5.0 percent. Fourthquarter growth outpaced expectations at 5.4 percent, supported by a combination of stimulus measures and a surge in exports ahead of anticipated higher US tariffs. China’s economic expansion in the fourth quarter beat Reuters-polled economists’ estimates, outpacing the 4.6 percent in the third quarter, 4.7 percent in the second quarter, 5.3 percent in the first quarter. According to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), annual GDP reached RMB 134.91 trillion (USD 18.80 trillion), reflecting solid yearon-year growth amidst persistent structural challenges and global economic uncertainties.
China’s economic performance in 2024 was characterized by a mixed contribution from its three major sectors. The secondary industry emerged as the primary driver, expanding by 5.3 percent year-onyear to RMB 49.21 trillion (USD 6.85 trillion). Within this sector, manufacturing above the designated size stood out with a robust 6.1 percent year-on-year growth. Notably, equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing recorded impressive expansions of 7.7 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively, underscoring China’s commitment to industrial modernization and technological advancement. The tertiary sector, encompassing services, grew by 5.0 percent to RMB 76.56 trillion (USD 10.63 trillion). Sub-sector performance revealed strong gains in information transmission, software, and information technology services (+10.9 percent), leasing and business services (+10.4 percent), transportation, storage, and postal services (+7.0 percent), and accommodation and catering (+5.6 percent). Additionally, finance and wholesale and retail trade grew by 6.4 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively. In the fourth quarter, the service sector’s value-added rose by 5.8 percent yearon-year, demonstrating continued momentum. The primary industry, comprising agriculture, contributed RMB 9.14 trillion (USD 1.31 trillion) in 2024, with a modest but steady growth rate of 3.5 percent year-on-year. While its expansion lagged behind other sectors, its stable performance highlights the sector’s resilience amid broader economic fluctuations. In terms of investment, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached RMB 51.44 trillion (USD 7.18 trillion), growing by 3.2 percent year-on-year. When excluding investment in real estate development, the growth rate improved to 7.2 percent. Key contributors included manufacturing investment, which surged by 9.2 percent, and infrastructure investment, which rose by 4.4 percent. In contrast, real estate development investment contracted sharply, declining by 10.6 percent, reflecting the ongoing challenges in China’s property market. Retail activity saw moderate growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching RMB 4.88 trillion (USD 679.81 billion), an increase of 3.5 percent compared to the previous year. Online retail sales accounted for RMB 1.55 trillion (USD 215.92 billion), marking a stronger annual growth rate of 7.2 percent. Retail performance improved in the fourth quarter, with total retail sales of consumer goods rising by 3.8 percent year-onyear, supported by seasonal demand and increased consumer confidence.
China’s property sector showed tentative signs of stabilization in December 2024, as new home prices ceased their 18-month decline, according to official data released on Friday. This marked a significant shift from the 0.1 percent month-on-month decline recorded in November, based on calculations by Reuters from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, on an annual basis, new home prices still contracted by 5.3 percent, following a 5.7 percent drop in November, reflecting the lingering challenges in the sector. The turnaround in monthly price trends coincided with a series of government-led initiatives to bolster the struggling real estate market. These included reductions in mortgage rates and measures enabling local governments to use special bond proceeds to acquire unsold housing units and idle land. These policies appear to have mitigated risks in the property market, a sentiment echoed by the governor of China’s central bank, who noted that risks had been “significantly mitigated.” First-tier cities, in particular, showed a modest uptick in property prices, further supporting this view. Despite this stabilization in pricing, broader data released on Friday underscored ongoing weaknesses in the real estate sector. Property investment in 2024 fell by 10.6 percent year-on-year, representing the steepest annual decline on record. The supply side also showed persistent sluggishness, with property sales and new construction starts, measured by floor area, contracting by 12.9 percent and 23.0 percent, respectively. These figures highlight the depth of the challenges facing the sector and suggest that the road to recovery will be protracted.
In stark contrast, China's foreign trade reached an all-time high in 2024, reinforcing its position as the global leader in goods trade. Total goods imports and exports amounted to RMB 43.85 trillion (approximately USD 6.1 trillion), reflecting a 5 percent year-on-year increase, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC). Exports led this growth, rising 7.1 percent year-onyear to RMB 25.45 trillion, while imports expanded by 2.3 percent to RMB 18.39 trillion. At a government press conference in Beijing on Monday, Wang Lingjun, the deputy head of the GAC, highlighted that China's foreign trade growth in 2024 was among the fastest among major global economies. "China's foreign trade has concluded the year 2024 with a successful ending," Wang remarked, referencing the strong performance in December. December imports and exports exceeded RMB 4 trillion, a record monthly high, representing a 6.8 percent year-on-year increase. The fourth quarter further showcased robust trade activity, with total foreign trade reaching RMB 11.51 trillion. Quarterly growth accelerated by 0.4 percentage points compared to the third quarter, underscoring a consistent upward momentum in trade activity during the latter part of the year.
At the close of 2024, the head of China's statistics bureau described the nation's economic achievements as "hard won," crediting the slew of stimulus measures implemented in the latter half of the year. However, looking ahead to 2025, warnings about a potential slowdown in China’s economy are intensifying. One of the primary drivers of last year’s growth – exports – faces significant risks. However, the challenges extend beyond external pressures. Domestically, business and consumer confidence remains subdued, exacerbated by the anticipated weakening of the Chinese yuan as Beijing continues to lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate growth. While the property market downturn is expected to reach its nadir this year, analysts at Goldman Sachs caution that it will likely remain a "multi-year drag" on the economy, further dampening prospects for rapid recovery.
China’s economic outlook for 2025 is set to hinge on governmentdriven stimulus measures, suggesting that disparities across sectors may persist. To foster more stable and inclusive growth, boosting confidence among households and private businesses will be essential. This lack of confidence is also mirrored in the dry bulk shipping, where the spot market remains subdued in early January.
Data source: Doric