As we discussed in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly Dry Bulk Report, India produced approximately 134.3 billion kilowatt hours of electricity in July. This is down month-on-month by 4.9 billion kilowatt hours (-4%) but is up year-on-year by 8.4 billion kilowatt hours (7%). Noteworthy is that hydropower output again suffered a year-on-year contraction, as we have continued to expect, as key parts of the nation have continued to receive less rainfall than usual.
Hydropower output totaled approximately 17.1 billion kilowatt hours. This is up month-on-month by 3.3 billion kilowatt hours (24%) but is down year-on-year by 500 million kilowatt hours (-3%). June marked a second straight month where hydropower output contracted on a year-on-year basis — and, in fact, hydropower output has now contracted on a year-on-year basis during fifteen of the last seventeen months.
Coal-derived electricity generation totaled approximately 111.3 billion kilowatt hours. This is down month-on-month by 9.4 billion kilowatt hours (-8%) but is up year-on-year by 8.2 billion kilowatt hours (8%). India’s coal-derived electricity generation has now grown on a year-on-year basis during each of the last fifteen months. The ongoing growth has helped allow India’s power plant stockpiles and Coal India’s own stockpiles to fall recently even as Coal India’s production continues to surge.
Coal India produced approximately 55 million tons of coal last month, which marks a month-on-month decline of 8.1 million tons (-13%) but a year-on-year increase of 1.3 million tons (2%). Coal India’s production has now increased on a year-on-year basis during thirty-nine of the last forty months. Also of note is that the first seven months of this year have seen production increase year-on-year by 32.7 million tons (7%).
Offtake (amount sent to customers) totaled 59.6 million tons last month, which marks a month-on-month decline of 4.5 million tons (-7%) but a year-on-year increase of 100,000 tons. Offtake has now increased on a year-on-year basis during forty of the last forty-one months. Also of note is that offtake again exceeded production. Prior to the last four months, offtake came in less than production for five straight months, which caused Coal India’s stockpiles to rise during each of those five months. With offtake again exceeding production last month, however, stockpiles have now fallen to approximately 78 million tons.
Overall, India remains a bright spot in the global economy and for the dry bulk market. In addition to overall electricity production and coal-derived electricity generation remaining robust and setting records throughout this year (and coal stockpiles also recently declining at both the nation’s power plants and coal mine pitheads), India’s steel output has also stayed robust and set records throughout this year. So far this year, India’s steel output has set two new monthly records, and all but one month so far this year have seen monthly output either match or exceed the previous 12.1 million ton record that was set last year. Looking forward, there remain no signs that India’s tremendous strength is set to reverse anytime soon.
