Divergence in China's Coal-Derived Electricity Generation and Hydropower Generation Continues

By Jeffrey Landsberg

Thermal coal-derived electricity generation continues to make up the bulk of China's electricity production and totaled a record 599.7 billion kilowatt hours last month.  This has marked a month-on-month increase of 76.9 billion kilowatt hours (15%) and is up year-on-year by 43.7 billion kilowatt hours (8%).  China's thermal coal-derived electricity generation growth has now exceeded coal production growth for five straight months.  Previously, coal production growth had exceeded coal-derived electricity generation growth during fourteen of the prior sixteen months. 

China's hydropower generation totaled 121.1 billion kilowatt hours last month.  This has marked a month-on-month increase of 22.9 billion kilowatt hours (23%) but is down year-on-year by 25.2 billion kilowatt hours (-17%).  Chin'a's hydropower generation has now contracted on a year-on-year basis for seven straight months.  Overall, the divergence in thermal coal-derived electricity generation and hydropower generation remains supportive for Chinese coal imports prospects and the dry bulk market.  China is continuing to consume a record amount of thermal coal, and there are still no signs that China's robust appetite for thermal coal is set to suddenly reverse.