The first half of February provides a weaker trend in freight rates, while the number of ballasters continues to weigh on freight market sentiment, as the imbalance between supply and demand diminishes the chances of an early recovery. Demand growth is still clearly declining, while increasing congestion in the Baltic ports (see figure below) is leading to an upward trend in freight rates for the smaller ship sizes, especially for the Supramax ship class.
In the iron ore industry, prices were under pressure as Chinese economic activity slows despite the easing of zero-covid policy. According to Reuters, iron ore futures in Dalian and Singapore fell to the lowest level in more than two weeks on Monday as traders dampened optimism about demand prospects in China, the main steel producer. The most-traded May iron ore price on China's Dalian DCIOcv1 commodity exchange fell as much as 1.2% to 836 yuan ($123.30) a tonne, marking the fifth consecutive decline.
Chart of the Week Dry Bulk: Baltic Sea Port Congestion
Rising trend in February with surprisingly high numbers for ship size Supramax
Data Source: The Signal Ocean Platform, Dry Bulk Port Congestion, Baltic Sea
SECTION 1/ FREIGHT - Market Rates ($/t) Weaker
‘The Big Picture’ - Capesize and Panamax Bulkers and Smaller Ship Sizes
Mixed signals for the second week of February, as there seems to be a slight upswing in the smaller ship size segments, while Capesize and Panamax segments continue to show a decline.
Capesize vessel freight rates fell to $16/tonne, down $1/tonne from the previous week and down $4.5/tonne from the last few days of December.
Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East fell to less than $34/tonne, down $5/tonne from the end of January, with the overall trend easing in February.
Supramax freight rates for the Indo-ECI route rose to levels above $10/tonne, and there are signs of further firming in February.
Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC route to the Far East rose to $30/tonne, while January's downward trend from the previous week continues to smooth out.
SECTION 2/ SUPPLY - Ballasters (# vessels) Increasing
Supply Trend Lines for Key Load Areas
The number of ballast ships has continued to increase significantly since the end of the third week, while the Capesize, Panamax and Handysize segments have seen a surprising increase in the last two weeks.
Capesize SE Africa: The number of vessels now stands at 95, which is 17 more than the average for the year and 62% more than the lowest level in week 51.
Panamax SE Africa: The number of vessels is now 141, 90% higher than in week 50.
Supramax SE Asia: The number of vessels increased to 98, 6 more than the previous week and 20% above the year-end 2022 low.
Handysize NOPAC: The number of vessels reached a peak of 89, 20 above the annual average and the highest since the end of week 4.
SECTION 3/ DEMAND - TonDays Decreasing
February saw a continuation of the significant decline in demand growth seen since the end of January, with only the Panamax segment recording a slight upward trend in two consecutive weeks.
Capesize demand ton-days: The downward trend observed in January now seems to have found a bottom and sustained the weakening growth for the first half of February.
Panamax demand ton-days: In January, the downward trend in the Panamax segment continued in January, while it gradually turned into an upward trend in February.
Supramax demand ton-days: Volatility remains and there are no clear signs yet of an upward or downward trend in the coming days.
Handysize demand ton-days: The decline continues, with a lower percentage increase than other vessel sizes.
SECTION 4/ PORT CONGESTION - No of Vessels Increasing
Dry bulk ships congested at Chinese ports
In the second week of February, congestion reached a new high, having reached its last peak in week 52 of last year.
Capesize: The number of vessels is 154, 14 more than the previous week, and the trend of increase seems to be the highest this year.
Panamax: The number of congested vessels rose to 212, 10 more than the levels of week 1.
Supramax: The number of congested vessels increased to 273, which is 11% more than in week 2.
Handysize: The number of congested vessels increased to 158, 14 more than the previous week, with a tendency of further increase in the coming days.
Data Source: Signal Ocean Platform