The freight market is not yet showing signs of firmness, as demand growth in both the large and smaller ship segments is down significantly. Overall, freight rate sentiment seems to have deteriorated in the first quarter, and the economic recovery in China has not yet had a positive impact on rate development. Meanwhile, compared to the previous two years, Chinese port congestion reached one of the lowest levels in a similar period, with Capesize congestion in the first quarter of this year appearing to drive the downward trend. While there were some signs of an increase in the first half of March, Chinese port congestion has not yet reached last year's levels as the slowdown in the Capesize segment continued and the number of congested vessels remained at a lower annual level. (see image below)
Prices in the iron ore market are rising, fueling optimism for stronger momentum toward the end of the first quarter. Goldman Sachs expects a seasonal increase in Chinese steel production in March/April, which will lead to an increase in iron ore prices to $150/tonne. In addition, Australia's Fortescue Metals said it expects solid demand for iron ore this year as China supports its real estate and construction sectors but reported lower first-half profit and dividends and pointed to continued inflationary pressures.
Chart of the Week Dry Bulk: Capesize Chinese port congestion decreases
Data Source: The Signal Ocean Platform, Chinese dry bulk port congestion
SECTION 1/ FREIGHT - Market Rates ($/t) Steady
‘The Big Picture’ - Capesize and Panamax Bulkers and Smaller Ship Sizes
In the last days of February, rates are at similar levels as last week, while the general sentiment continues to weaken, with the Supramax segment offering stronger resistance to a downward trend.
Capesize vessel freight rates are now at $16/tonne, with March sentiment even weaker.
Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East are hovering below $32/tonne, and there is no sign yet of firmer pricing.
Supramax freight rates for the Indo-ECI route held at levels near $10/tonne, with indications that they will not drop significantly through late February/early March.
Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC route to the Far East are now at $29.5/tonne, with slight signs of gradual recovery for early March.
SECTION 2/ SUPPLY - Ballasters (# vessels) Increasing
Supply Trend Lines for Key Load Areas
The number of ballast ships has continued to increase significantly, apart from the Panamax segment.
Capesize SE Africa: The number of vessels now stands at 91, which is 12 more than the average for the year and 55% more than the lowest level in week 51.
Panamax SE Africa: The number of vessels has dropped to 103, only 2 above the annual average and 30% below the week 5 level.
Supramax SE Asia: The number of vessels increased to 108, 22 more than week 5 and 35% above the year-end 2022 low.
Handysize NOPAC: The number of ships accelerated to 90, the highest level since the beginning of the year, with a tendency for a further sharp increase towards the end of February.
SECTION 3/ DEMAND - TonDays Decreasing
February saw a significant decline in demand growth, with the Capesize segment showing the strongest downward trend.
Capesize demand ton-days: The downward trend remained as strong as in early February, with weak expectations for an upturn.
Panamax demand ton-days: The trend is still flattening, but with signs of a downward movement in the last days of February.
Supramax demand ton-days: Volatility remains, but now with clear signs of a downward trend in early March.
Handysize demand ton-days: The decline continues, but it is interesting to note that the trend seems to be weakening compared to the largest Capesize segment.
SECTION 4/ PORT CONGESTION - No of Vessels Steady
Dry bulk ships congested at Chinese ports
In the last days of February ending, the last high of the third week of the month seemed to continue, driven by the rise in the Panamax, Supramax and Handysize segments. The Capesize segment appeared to be the only one that saw a significant decline.
Capesize: The number of vessels stands at 118, down 19 from the previous week, with a downward trend toward the end of February.
Panamax: The number of vessels increased to 217, 7 more than the previous week.
Supramax: The number of vessels is now at 238, 2 more than the previous week.
Handysize: The number of congested vessels has reached 158, almost the peak of last week, with only 1 ship less than the previous week, with an increasing trend towards the end of February.
Data Source: Signal Ocean Platform