By Daniel Hynes
Signs of stronger demand in China boosted sentiment and was aided by falls in inventories across various markets.
Copper led the base metals sector higher amid signs of stronger demand. Copper stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell for the first time in two months. Growth in aluminium inventories also slowed, according to data from Shanghai Metals Market. This comes amid ongoing risks of further supply disruptions. Earlier this week, Freeport-McMoRan Inc suspended operations at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia due to landslides. This is adding to disruption to Peru’s output caused by social unrest. The better fundamentals offset concerns of a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Loretta Mester said she saw a compelling case for a 50bp hike at the FOMC’s last meeting.
Sentiment in the iron ore market lifted on signs of stabilisation in the property market. Home prices held steady in January in China, following declines for the past 16 months. Expectations of further policy support are rising, with the Economic Daily suggesting they should focus on supporting first-home buyers and home purchases for improving living conditions. Iron ore futures in Singapore gained nearly 1% to end the session at USD125.75/t.
Gold fell to a six-week low after US data highlighted persistent inflation. US producer prices gained more than expected in January, raising the prospect of further interest rate hikes in coming months.
Crude oil swung between gains and losses amid a mixed outlook. Air traffic data suggest Chinese demand is growing. Passenger loads at China’s top three airlines are back above 70%. The Civil Aviation Administration of China reported that passenger traffic in January was 74.5% of the level in the same month in 2019, while travel between 7 January to 15 February was up 39% from the same time last year. This was part of why the International Energy Agency raised its demand growth estimates by 0.1mb/d to 2mb/d for 2023. This was offset by signs of weakness in the US. Stockpiles gained by 16.3mbbl last week. East Coast gasoline inventories rose to their highest level in more than a year, even as imports slowed. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said OPEC+ plans to stick with a deal agreed in October for the rest of the year.
European natural gas fell as demand remains muted. Gas storage is at 66%, well above the five-year average of 46%. Milder weather and strong LNG imports have helped compensate for Russian gas pipeline supply losses. However, Shell warned that Europe’s demand for natural gas will exceed supply for the remainder of the decade. In the short term, it expects China will boost its LNG imports this year, although they will remain lower than the level seen in 2021. This helped boost sentiment in the North Asia LNG market.
Data source: Commodities Wrap