An impactful film ending

By Michalis Voutsinas

The idea that a roller coaster is merely a ride, and that it's our privilege and responsibility to see it through to its end, seems afar from the tumultuous waves of the Capesize market in recent weeks. After reaching a lucrative peak of $54,584 on Monday morning, a sense of vertigo gripped the largest bulkers, preventing them from fully enjoying the view. Subsequently, the respective index has seen a continuous decline, currently sitting approximately $20,000 lower than the previously reported highs. In reference to the less volatile spectrum of the other bulkers, a very similar pattern to the one mentioned earlier emerged. However, the experience felt more akin to navigating a bumpy road in a winter countryside rather than a sudden trial of veloxrotaphobia. After maintaining a four-day streak above the $20,000-mark, the Panamax segment experienced losses this week, settling at $18,932. While the geared segments remained profitable for the week, Supramax concluded below its intra-week highs at $16,731. On the other hand, Handysize kept steaming north, balancing today at $15,700.

Regarding commodities, Oil benchmarks faced their seventh consecutive weekly decline due to concerns about a global supply surplus and sluggish Chinese demand. However, prices saw a slight rebound on Friday following a call from Saudi Arabia and Russia for additional OPEC+ members to participate in output cuts. Meanwhile, copper prices surged on Friday, driven by expectations of increased demand from China. This optimism stemmed from China's export data indicating signs of recovery. China's exports recorded growth for the first time in six months in November, and its copper imports surged by 10.1 percent month-on-month, reaching a two-year high. Similarly, iron ore futures experienced an uptick today, bolstered by several factors. Robust export data from China, speculation about potential economic stimulus, and consistent high demand contributed to this rise. China's recent export growth suggests that factories in the world's second-largest economy are attracting buyers through discounted pricing to offset a prolonged dip in demand.

In line with exports, China's import trends have notably surged in recent months. November's customs data revealed a 3.4 percent month-on-month increase in China's iron ore imports. This uptick was fueled by improved steel mill profits and a strengthening yuan. China imported 102.74 million metric tonnes last month, marking a rise from October's 99.39 million tonnes. November was the fourth consecutive month where imports remained elevated, surpassing 100 million tonnes for the fifth time this year. Projections suggest that December's imports will likely mirror the previous month's levels due to mills needing to secure shipments. However, soaring prices of imported ores may have a negative bearing on future demand. Market sources indicate an anticipated continuous increase in the stockpiles of imported iron ore at Chinese ports. Last week, iron ore volume stocked at the 45 major ports covered in Mysteel's weekly survey reached 115 million tonnes, well above their recent lows.

China witnessed a significant uptick in coal imports during November as well, marking a solid 20.9 percent increase month-on-month. Buyers capitalized on the opportunity of more affordable imported coal ahead of the winter season. Chinese customs cleared 43.51 million tonnes of coal last month, showcasing a substantial 34.7 percent surge year-on-year. During November, imported coal maintained a price advantage over domestic coal, driving utility companies to increase their purchases. Additionally, a seasonal reduction in hydroelectric power production further bolstered the demand for imports. Analysts from China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association highlighted these factors as contributing to the increased coal demand lately. According to customs data, total coal imports for the first 11 months of the year amounted to 427.14 million tonnes, marking a notable 62.9 percent surge compared to the same period in 2022. Notably, China's coal imports from Australia experienced a 19 percent month-on-month rise during November.

In the realm of staple grains, China's import of soybeans surged to 7.92 million metric tonnes in November, marking a 7.8 percent increase year-on-year. Over the first 11 months of the year, the world's leading soybean buyer imported a total of 89.63 million tonnes, reflecting a substantial 13.3 percent surge year-on-year. While Brazil has dominated soybean shipments to China this year, the arrival of US soybeans is anticipated to rebound in the upcoming months. Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean exports have been scaling unprecedented heights, setting new records almost every month, as indicated by LSEG trade flow data. November witnessed Brazil exporting 4.4 million tonnes of soybeans, second only to the 4.9 million tonnes exported in November 2018. A combination of robust Chinese demand, ample supply, competitive pricing, and a strong export momentum has propelled Brazil's soybean industry to remarkable success. China has also been procuring corn at exceptional levels. LSEG flow data reveals that November saw China import 4.2 million metric tonnes, a record high for the month and nearly five times the long-term average. Notably, China has significantly shifted its corn purchases to Brazil, accounting for 83 percent of total imports. Despite China signing 11 agricultural product purchase contracts with US exporters, outstanding corn sales to China have declined to 335 thousand tonnes, in contrast to 1.8 million tonnes from a year ago and 10.7 million tonnes in 2021.

Data source: Doric