Doric-China Barometer Highlights

By Michalis Voutsinas and Helen Vlassi

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

  • China’s GDP growth slowed sharply by 2.9 percent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2022, after expanding by 3.9 percent in the previous quarter.

  • During the currency of 2022, Chinese economy expanded by 3.0 percent, well below Beijing’s target of 5.5 percent annual growth, marking its slowest rise in almost five decades.

  • Retail sales and industrial production growth slowed further by 0.2 percent and 3.6 percent respectively year-on-year in 2022, compared to a record of 12.5 percent and 9.6 percent rise subsequently back in 2021

  • Exports form China shrank sharply by 9.9 percent year-on-year in December to USD 306.1, billion after declining 8.7 percent in previous month

  • Imports to China tumbled by 7.5 percent year-on-year in December to USD 228.07 billion, up significantly from a drop of 10.6 percent in November.

  • China posted a total trade surplus of USD 78.02 billion in December, compared with a USD 69.84 billion surplus in the previous month.


MANUFACTURING 1/2


  • China’s production of crude steel in December shrank by 9.8 percent from a year earlier to 77.89 million tonnes, as mills cut output to stem losses.

  • Average daily output in December stood at 2.53 million tonnes, or up 1.1 percent from previous month.

  • In 2022, China churned out 1.01 billion tonnes of crude steel, or down 2.1 percent from a year earlier.



MANUFACTURING 2/2


  • After a slump of 9.8 percent in the first eleven months, China’s real estate investment dropped by 10.0 percent yearon-year over the course of 2022, marking its first drop since 1999.

  • Property sales by floor area dropped by 24.3 percent year-on-year in 2022, continuing the double-digits fall for the 12th straight month.

  • China’s central bank announced the introduction of a dynamic mechanism, allowing cities to adjust the lowest limit for first-home mortgage rates.


CRUDE OIL

  • China brought in 48.07 million tonnes of crude oil in December, equivalent to 11.3 million barrels per day, or circa 4.2 percent up from a year earlier.

  • December’s reading stood 2.8 percent higher month-on-month, as state refiners raised purchases of Saudi crude oil due to its lower pricing versus November.

  • In 2022, crude imports totalled 508.28 million tonnes, down 0.9 percent from a year earlier.

  • Chinese independent refiners chased discounted Iranian oil, in order to use quotas before year-end.


IRON ORE


  • China brought in 90.86 million tonnes of iron ore in December, down by circa 8.1 percent year-on-year.

  • During the currency of 2022, China imported 1.11 billion tonnes of iron ore, a dive of 1.5 percent from 1.13 billion tonnes reported in the same period a year earlier.

  • December’s imports of iron ore fell sharply by 8.1 percent from November’s reading, as the surge of Covid cases delaying shipments.

  • During December, 77.89 million metric tonnes of crude iron ore has been extracted in China, or down circa 9.8 percent year-on-year.

  • On a monthly basis, iron ore output increased by 4.5 percent in December, up from 74.54 million tonnes reported in November.

  • From January to December, 1.01 billion metric tonnes of crude iron ore has been extracted in China, or down 2.1 percent year-on-year.




COAL


  • China imported 30.91 million tonnes of coal in December, or slightly down by 0.1 percent year-on-year.

  • On a monthly basis, China’s coal imports slipped by 4.3 percent.

  • From January to December, Chinese customs cleared a total of 293.32 million metric tonnes or circa 9.3 percent down year-on-year.

  • China’s government allowed utilities to resume coal imports from Australia in previous month, after an unofficial ban on coal trade with Canberra since 2020.

  • Reporting a rise of 2.4 percent year-onyear, China’s domestic coal output balanced at 402.69 million tonnes in December, or 12.99 million tonnes per day.

  • China’s domestic coal output in 2022 rose by circa 9.0 percent from a year earlier to 4.49 billion metric tonnes.

  • China’s daily coal output slipped by 0.4 percent month-on-month in December, as Covid outbreaks slowed demand from industrial users.


Data source: Doric