The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released their first global grain export forecast for the upcoming 2022/23 season. The forecast is still very preliminary, but of note is that only 487.3 million tons of exports are expected. If 487.3 million tons is ultimately exported, then this would mark a year-on-year decline of 12.9 million tons (-3%) from the 500.2 million tons that is expected for the current 2021/22 season. Wheat exports are expected to rebound in 2022/23, but coarse grain exports are expected to decline by a large amount.
The USDA is now forecasting that global coarse grain exports in 2022/23 will total 228.2 million tons, which is 19.5 million tons (-8%) less than is expected for the current 2021/22 season. A small decline is expected for exports from the United States, and a much larger decline is expected for exports from Ukraine.
Global wheat exports are expected to total 204.9 million tons. This is 5 million tons (3%) more than is expected for the current 2021/22 season. As with in the coarse grain market, a significant decline in wheat exports is expected for exports from Ukraine.
Global soybean exports (soybeans are not technically classified as a grain) are expected to total 170 million tons. This is 14.4 million tons (9%) more than is expected for the current 2021/22 season. Growth is expected from all major exporters.
Global soymeal exports are expected to total 69.8 million tons. This is 2.1 million tons (3%) more than is expected for the current 2021/22 season. Growth is also expected from all major exporters.
