BRS Group had recently released its Annual Review 2022 edition which present an extensive dissection of 2021 performance while charting the outlook of various shipping markets. This spanned from carbon, tankers, containers, LNG, offshore and of course, our beloved drybulk using BRS research in-house proprietary fleet data.
For more information, please visit following link https://www.brsbrokers.com/annualreview2022.html . Meantime, we will take a brief but comprehensive look at the various drybulk size segments’ supply fundamentals. Recent events had shrouded various demand forecasts (be it global gdp growth %, manufacturing/purchasing indices, commodity volumes) with massive uncertainty, coupled with freight rates showing signs of a downward reversal, it is understandable that shipowners are getting a tad jittery. In these times, we must remind ourselves that while demand forecasts can be subjected to whimsical changes of external factors, supply forecast for drybulk fleet are more rooted in cold hard figures from shipyards that offer better clarity on long-term freight prospects and pay less heed to short-term volatility that is beyond the control of individual players.
Since 2007’s massive new orders of 495 Capesize ships which are subsequently delivered over the lean years of 2010-2015, the oversupplied market crashed the Capesize freight rates. Against this backdrop, we witnessed an active approach towards shedding tonnage from 2011-2020.
While Capesize freight experienced a rejuvenation in 2021, only 110 fresh orders were made that year, a far cry from 2007’s 495 & 2008’s 275 numbers. As of early Apr-22, fresh orders for this year thus far stands at 8, a reflection of shipyard slots being fully booked till 2024/25. These 2 facts alone, meant unless we experienced yet another black swan that decimated iron ore & coal demand like 2020, Capesize freight levels should not suffered a drastic y.o.y drop. Looking at Capeize fleet projections (in dwt), the annualized fleet supply growth from 2022-2024 is at a modest 2.17% . By end 2024, it is projected that vessels of 15 years and above will constitute 16.7% of existing fleet (in count).
In 2016, we witnessed deletions count exceeding deliveries count for the Panamax fleet following the implosion of rates in 2015/2016. That said, taking a step back, from 2010-2020, the annual deletions count been relatively lackluster as compared to other sizes, especially towards the tail end of the period (less than 10 deletions since 2018). This is attributed to grains (from Brazil and USA) now securing a more prominent role in Panamax’s employment in recent years. Hence, it would also explain why we witnessed a sudden spike in fresh order in 2021 at 171. Looking at Panamax fleet projections (in dwt), the annualized fleet supply growth from 2022-2024 is at 2.74% clip among all vessel sizes. By end 2024, it is projected that vessels of 15 years and above will constitute 30.1% of existing fleet (in count).
Looking at Supramax fleet projections (in dwt), the annualized fleet supply growth from 2022-2024 is at 2.13%. By end 2024, it is projected that vessels of 15 years and above will constitute 25.9% of existing fleet (in count).
We can observe that the Handysize fleet experienced the most aggressive deletions amongst all vessel sizes over the past 3 decades. To top off that, a mere 57 fresh order were recorded in 2021as HS7TC averaged above $25,000 (tripled that of 2020 average of $8,003). Looking at Handysize fleet projections (in dwt), the annualized fleet supply growth from 2022-2024 is at 1.16%, lowest among all vessel sizes. A combination of above factors made us confident on Handysize’ ability to cushion its freight downside when volatility strike and capture the upside when the demand tide rise.