Dry Bulk Fleet Continues to Grow While Chinese Imports Are in Contraction


By Jeffrey Landsberg


The dry bulk fleet continues to grow while Chinese iron ore, coal, and soybean imports are in contraction.  As has been widely reported, China imported 87.3 million tons of iron ore in March.  This marks a month-on-month increase of 6 million tons (7%) but is down year-on-year by 14.8 million tons (-14%).  As we have continued to stress in Commodore's Weekly Dry Bulk Reports and Weekly China Reports, there remains a solid chance this year that both Chinese iron ore import volume and global iron ore trade volume will contract on a year-on-year basis.  Through the first three months of this year, Chinese iron ore imports have contracted on a year-on-year basis by 14.8 million tons (-5%).

China imported 16.4 million tons of coal in March.  This marks a month-on-month decline of 1.3 million tons (-7%) and is down year-on-year by 10.9 million tons (-40%).  As with in the iron ore market, we have also continued to stress that there remains a solid chance this year that both Chinese coal import volume and global coal trade volume will contract on a year-on-year basis.  Through the first three months of this year, Chinese coal imports have contracted on a year-on-year basis by 16.7 million tons (-24%).

China imported 6.3 million tons of soybeans in March.  This marks a month-on-month decline of 700,000 tons (-10%) and is down year-on-year by 1.3 million tons (-17%).  As with in the iron ore and coal markets, there is also a solid chance now that both Chinese soybean import volume and global soybean trade volume will contract on a year-on-year basis.  Through the first three months of this year, Chinese soybean imports have contracted on a year-on-year basis by 900,000 tons (-4%).

The fact remains that global iron ore, coal, and grain trade volume could actually contract on a year-on-year basis this year.  The dry bulk fleet, though, is all but guaranteed to continue to grow.  Most recently, 28 dry bulk newbuildings were delivered in March which is 11 more than were delivered in February.  March saw the delivery of 5 handysize vessels, 10 handymax vessels, 6 panamax vessels, and 7 capesize vessels.  In comparison, February saw the delivery of 3 handysize vessels, 6 handymax vessels, 5 panamax vessels, and 3 capesize vessels.  Also of note is that 4 dry bulk vessels were scrapped in March, which is 1 more than were scrapped in February.  March saw the removal of 2 panamax vessels and 2 capesize vessels.  In comparison, February saw the removal of 1 handymax vessel and 2 capesize vessels.